Why Tim Tebow will Fail

First, I have to admit: I want Tim Tebow to fail. A few reasons. One, he's not a very good quarterback. He's got talent, don't get me wrong, but he doesn't have what it takes to be a successful NFL quarterback. He's gotten lucky to get this far. Two, he has to be the worst kind of religious fanatic. No matter what you believe, there is no need to be so obnoxious about it.

Back to the first point... What's Tebow's completion percentage? 42%? I'm almost positive it's not even 50%. That's sad. A starting NFL quarterback - to be successful - should at least be somewhere in the 60s. He can extend the play, he can make things happen with his feet that keeps defenses guessing, but that won't work for long - just ask Michael Vick. After a while, teams key on your strengths... then you lose a step... and then you're a sitting duck. Right now, Tebow is ahead of the curve, but I can guarantee he'll be brought back down to Earth pretty quick.

Just look at those who've come before him. Think of Steve Young, another scrambling leftie. Or Donovan McNabb - also known primarily for his legs and his toughness. It's great to have that in your arsenal, but only to complement other skills. McNabb, for instance, had to consciously alter his playing style and spend more time in the pocket so he could survey the field; in time he became one of the most accurate passers in the league. This is the sort of trajectory Tebow will need to follow to be successful.

After watching him play, though, my feeling is that he doesn't have the basic skill set to do it, even if he wanted to; he just doesn't have that capability. He's more like a Michael Vick: a great athlete, not a great position player. Vick has the quickness, agility, and arm strength; Tebow has the size and the power... what they both lack is patience and decision-making. When he was with the Falcons, Vick was basically a glorified running back - he'd take a drop, look for a couple seconds, and then take off if he didn't see something right away. Andy Reid has made him a better quarterback, but you can tell he's still fighting his instinct, which has a lot to do with the Eagles unsuccessful season. Tebow, on the other hand, does take a good amount of time, he just can't make the basic throws. He can chuck it up there and make the receiver go get it - but any sort of route that involves a receiver moving across the field, or coming back in, or some other sort of complex move, and he just cannot hit the target. And he's not getting any better. After 350+ career attempts, he's connected on 47% of his passes. Good luck maintaining a career with that kind of percentage.

Second, the fanaticism... and by extension, the fervor of his supporters. Please be aware: this has nothing to do with his particular brand of Christianity - which seems quite superficial - I would say the same thing if he were Muslim. Tebow legitimately believes God is helping him win football games. And, according to one recent poll, 43% of the nation believe the same. In the words of Kyle Broflovski...

Are there people out there who think God actually has a vested interest... in football? In a game? I have so many problems with this line of thinking, I don't even know where to start. First of all, how pious can Tebow be when he works every Sunday? He's not an Adventist - isn't it his Christian duty to go to church on Sunday and spend the day in quiet reflection? Can you "remember the Sabbath and keep it holy" when you're running around a field for a few hours, ducking hits and throwing balls in the air, all while surrounded by thousands of screaming drunks?

It's fine whatever Tebow believes. Evidently millions of people believe the same. But there is a time and place for everything. If you want to thank God you scored a touchdown, or say a prayer before/during/after a game - go ahead! No problem with it. What I can't stand is that Tebow is just so over the top about it; and when someone goes to such an effort to inject any name in the conversation, I begin to question their motives. Does Tim Tebow really feel this way, or does he simply want us to think he really feels this way? Also, it's incredibly arrogant to say that God is helping you win a football game; it just begs the question, If you're playing against another Christian, why would God help you and hurt him? Better question: with all his infinite wisdom and power, and all the thoughts/concerns/prayers of his followers, does God actually care about something as trivial as a football game?

Now trust me, I'm not saying he's purposely being mendacious (I think he's too dim for that), just that I find it all very... spurious, let's say. Look at this quote from Tebow, said in response to Jake Plummer suggesting that maybe his relationship with God is better left a private matter rather than a public one:

“If you’re married, and you have a wife, and you really love your wife, is it good enough to only say to your wife, I love her, the day you get married? Or should you tell her every single day when you wake up and have the opportunity? And that’s how I feel about my relationship with Jesus Christ. It is the most important thing in my life, so every opportunity I have to tell him I love him, or I’m given an opportunity to shout him out on national TV, I’m going to take that opportunity.”

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Tim Tebow is not very experienced in the girlfriend/marriage department. Not that I'm Don Juan or anything, but I know enough to know that one thing you don't do is tell your wife how much you love her every opportunity you have. Because guess what? That's annoying, and that's not love. That's display. Yes, I think it's important to show that love, to express that love every day - but if you're spending all day every day telling your wife that you love her, I'd venture to say that you won't be married very long. No one wants to be clung to.

And that's really my issue with Tebow's religious fervor - it's just so puerile. These are not the words of a man who has really examined his faith and is genuinely excited to share his experience; these are the words of someone who's been drinking the Kool-aid.

UPDATE: Did you see that Patriots game?! Wow. Remember what I said about teams focusing on your strengths and planning for them, Tebow? This is what happens. When I stopped watching, Tebow had been sacked five times, fumbled once, and completed only three passes. Apparently he threw six more in garbage time, but still - even for a rookie in a playoff game, that's pathetic. Good luck next year, Tim. You're going to need it.